---
title: Is Now a Good Time to Buy in Melbourne? 2026 | GNT Finance
description: Whether 2026 is a good time to buy in Melbourne depends on your deposit, income, time horizon and the schemes you qualify for, not on price predictions.
url: https://gntfinance.com.au/blog/is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-in-melbourne-2026/
author: Gorakh Timilsina
published: 2026-08-09
category: Rates & market
---

# Is now a good time to buy in Melbourne? A balanced 2026 view

**In short:** Nobody can reliably predict Melbourne prices a year ahead, so now is a good time to buy if you have a stable income, a deposit and buffer, a plan to hold for at least five to seven years, and repayments you can carry if rates rise. In 2026 first home buyers also have unusually strong support through the First Home Guarantee, Help to Buy and Victorian duty concessions.

Every year someone asks whether this is the year to buy, and every year the media offers two confident and opposite answers. We are not going to add a third. What we can do is give you the questions that actually determine whether buying now is right for you, and the 2026-specific factors worth weighing.

## Why price predictions are the wrong starting point

Even professional forecasters routinely miss the direction of the market, let alone the size of the move. If your decision depends on being right about next year's prices, it is a bet, not a plan. A home you live in for a decade will ride through several cycles. What matters over that period is whether you could afford to hold it the whole time, not whether you bought at the bottom.

That said, timing is not irrelevant. It just should be about your timing, not the market's.

## The five questions that matter more than the market

### 1. Is your income stable?

Permanent full-time employment past probation, or two years of consistent self-employed income, gives lenders and you confidence. A job you might leave in six months, or a business in its first year, argues for waiting, regardless of prices.

### 2. Do you have a deposit and a buffer?

The deposit gets you in. The buffer keeps you there. We suggest settling with at least two to three months of repayments in an offset account on top of your deposit and purchase costs. A buyer with exactly 5% and nothing else is exposed to the first surprise.

### 3. How long will you hold?

Buying and selling costs, including stamp duty, agent fees and conveyancing, take years to recover. If you might relocate for work or family within three years, renting is often cheaper even if prices rise. Five years or more, and the maths usually tips towards buying.

### 4. Can you carry the repayments if rates rise?

Lenders test you at your rate plus 3 percentage points, but test yourself too. For illustration, a $600,000 loan at 6.00% p.a. over 30 years costs $3,597 a month. At 7.00% it is about $3,992. If the higher figure would break your budget, buy a little less house or wait to build more income. Our guide on [mortgage stress and what to do](/guides/mortgage-stress-what-to-do/) explains the warning signs.

### 5. Does buying beat renting for you right now?

For illustration, a family renting a house in Epping at $550 a week pays about $2,383 a month. Buying a similar house for $650,000 with a 5% deposit means a $617,500 loan and repayments of about $3,702 a month at 6.00%, plus rates, insurance and maintenance. The buyer pays more each month, but part of every repayment reduces the loan and any growth is theirs. The renter keeps the difference and can invest it. Which is better depends on the numbers and the time horizon. The [rent vs buy calculator](/calculators/rent-vs-buy/) runs it for your situation.

## What is specific to 2026

Some factors genuinely favour buyers this year, and some counsel caution.

| In favour of buying in 2026 | Reasons for caution |
|---|---|
| First Home Guarantee has no income cap, unlimited places and a $950,000 Melbourne cap | Interest rates remain well above the levels of the early 2020s |
| Help to Buy offers a 2% deposit route for eligible incomes | Repayments on a 95% loan are high relative to rents in some suburbs |
| Victorian duty exemption to $600,000 and concession to $750,000 for first home buyers | New-build timelines and costs remain unpredictable in growth areas |
| $10,000 First Home Owner Grant for new homes up to $750,000 | Off-the-plan concession ends 20 October 2026, so some buyers may rush |
| Off-the-plan duty concession for apartments and townhouses still available until 20 October 2026 | Land tax and vacancy taxes have made some investors sell, which changes stock mix |

The support available to first home buyers in 2026 is the strongest it has been in years. For someone who is otherwise ready, that is a real tailwind. It is not a reason for someone who is not ready to buy anyway.

## Three buyer profiles

**Ready now.** A couple in permanent jobs with $60,000 saved, no other debts, planning to stay in Melbourne's north for a decade. They qualify for the guarantee and the duty concession. Waiting offers them nothing except the chance that prices or rates move against them. For them, now is a good time.

**Nearly ready.** A single buyer on a good income with $25,000 saved and a car loan. Clearing the car loan and reaching $40,000 over the next year would lift borrowing power and add a buffer. For them, a year of preparation beats buying thin.

**Not yet.** A couple on a temporary visa expecting permanent residency within 18 months. Buying now means the 8% foreign purchaser duty and limits on established homes. Waiting for PR unlocks the guarantee, the grant and every lender. For them, patience pays.

## A practical way to decide

1. Run the [borrowing power calculator](/calculators/borrowing-power/) with honest expenses.
2. Set your comfortable repayment, then test it 1% higher.
3. Total your deposit, costs and buffer against the [upfront costs calculator](/calculators/upfront-costs/).
4. Check which schemes you qualify for with the [first home buyer guide](/guides/first-home-buyer-guide-victoria/).
5. Decide your holding period.
6. If all five line up, get a pre-approval and start inspecting.

## Frequently asked questions

### Will Melbourne house prices go up or down in 2026?

We do not make price predictions and you should be cautious of anyone who does with confidence. Prices respond to interest rates, population growth, housing supply, wages and sentiment, and forecasters regularly get the direction wrong. Base your decision on whether you can afford and hold the home, not on a forecast.

### Should I wait for interest rates to fall before buying?

Waiting for cuts is a gamble on timing. If rates fall, more buyers enter the market and prices often respond. If they do not, you have waited for nothing. A better approach is to buy what you can comfortably service at today's rates, keep a buffer, and treat any future cuts as a bonus you use to pay down the loan faster.

### Is it better to rent and invest instead of buying?

For some people, yes. Renting where you want to live and investing elsewhere, sometimes called rentvesting, can work if you invest the difference consistently. It requires discipline and it gives up the main residence exemption from capital gains tax and the first home buyer schemes. Our rentvesting guide and the rent vs buy calculator help you compare.

### How much buffer should I have after buying?

Aim for two to three months of repayments in an offset or savings account after settlement, on top of your deposit and costs. This covers moving expenses, unexpected repairs and a rate rise or two without stress. Lenders also view post-settlement savings favourably when assessing your application.

## Talk to GNT Finance

If you want an honest read on whether you are ready, rather than a sales pitch, GNT Finance will run your numbers, explain the schemes you qualify for and tell you if waiting a year would put you in a stronger position. [Book a free consultation](/contact/) or call Gorakh Timilsina on 0426 403 703.