In short: The Reserve Bank meets on 29 September 2026 with the cash rate at 4.35% and inflation at 3.5% in the year to July, above its 2 to 3% target. The big four banks are split: NAB's economists expect a rise to 4.60% at this meeting, ANZ and CBA expect a move in November, and Westpac expects a hold. We are not predicting the outcome. A 0.25% rise adds about $97 a month to a $600,000 loan, and that is the number to prepare for.
Key takeaways
- Cash rate 4.35%, unchanged at the August 2026 meeting; the Board next decides on 29 September.
- The monthly CPI indicator showed inflation of 3.5% in the year to July 2026, above the target band.
- NAB is tipping a September rise to 4.60%; ANZ and CBA expect November; Westpac expects a hold. They cannot all be right.
- On a $600,000 loan, each 0.25% adds about $97 a month; 0.50% adds about $195.
- Prepare by knowing your rate, pricing a refinance and building a buffer, none of which depends on the outcome.
This is a preview, not a forecast. Two weeks out from the decision the economists who spend their careers on this question disagree with each other, which tells you everything about how much confidence to place in any prediction, including ours. What we can do is lay out what the Board is looking at, what each outcome would mean for your repayments, and what a borrower in Melbourne's north can sensibly do this fortnight regardless of what happens on the day.
Where the Reserve Bank starts from
The Board held at 4.35% in August, noting that inflation remained above target. The Australian Bureau of Statistics' monthly CPI indicator put annual inflation at 3.5% to July 2026; the ABS publishes the series at abs.gov.au. The Reserve Bank's target is 2 to 3% over time, and its stated approach is to hold policy tight enough for long enough to bring inflation back within the band without unnecessary damage to employment. The Board's own statements and minutes are at rba.gov.au.
What the Board will weigh on 29 September, in rough order of importance: the August CPI indicator released before the meeting, the labour market, wages, household spending, and global conditions. A hotter-than-expected inflation print strengthens the case for a rise; a softer one supports the hold camp.
What the banks are saying
| Bank | View at time of writing |
|---|---|
| NAB | Rise of 0.25% to 4.60% at the September meeting |
| ANZ | Rise, but in November rather than September |
| CBA | Rise, expected in November |
| Westpac | Hold at 4.35% |
Three of the four expect a rise by the end of the year; they differ on the month. One expects no move. Bank forecasts change quickly with each data release, so treat this table as a snapshot rather than a settled position. The lesson for borrowers is not to bet the household budget on any one of them.
What each outcome means for your repayments
For illustration, at 6.00% p.a. on a 30-year principal-and-interest loan, here is what a full pass-through of each scenario would do to monthly repayments.
| Loan amount | Repayment at 6.00% | After a 0.25% rise (6.25%) | After a 0.50% rise (6.50%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $2,998 | $3,079 (+$81) | $3,160 (+$162) |
| $600,000 | $3,597 | $3,694 (+$97) | $3,792 (+$195) |
| $800,000 | $4,796 | $4,926 (+$130) | $5,056 (+$260) |
If the Board holds, nothing changes on the day, though lenders can still reprice fixed rates on expectations. If the Board cuts, which no major bank currently expects, the table runs in reverse. Check your own loan with the repayment calculator.
Fixed-rate borrowers are unaffected until their term ends. Variable-rate borrowers usually see the change within a few weeks of the decision; lenders announce their pass-through separately and do not always match the RBA move exactly. The mechanics are in the RBA cash rate and your mortgage.
What to do before 29 September
None of the steps below depends on the outcome, which is the point.
1. Find out what rate you are actually paying
Many borrowers on loans older than two years are paying more than the same lender offers new customers. Look at your statement, then compare it with current advertised rates. If the gap is 0.30% or more, a phone call to your lender asking for a rate review often closes some of it, and a refinance closes the rest. On $600,000, every 0.10% is about $600 a year.
2. Price a refinance now
Rates for new loans are set with the market's expectations already built in, so there is no advantage in waiting for the decision. The refinance calculator shows the net saving after fees. If you are on a fixed rate that ends in the next six months, put the expiry in your diary; the roll-off rate is usually higher than what you could get by moving. See when to refinance.
3. Decide your fixed-variable position on your circumstances, not the meeting
Our post on fixed or variable in late 2026 sets out a five-question framework. In short, fixed suits tight budgets that need certainty, variable suits borrowers with an offset and spare cashflow, and a split hedges both. Compare with the split loan calculator.
4. Build the buffer
Whatever the Board does, aim to hold three months of repayments in an offset account or savings. A rise of $97 a month on $600,000 is manageable for most households, but two or three over a year, on top of everything else that has gone up, is what pushes people into difficulty. If you are already stretched, read mortgage stress: what to do now, and know that lenders must consider a hardship variation under the National Credit Code, which we explain in financial hardship rights.
5. If you are buying, get your pre-approval checked
A rate rise lifts the assessment rate too. A buyer pre-approved for $600,000 at a 6.00% rate would see that figure fall by roughly $13,000 if rates rose 0.25%, because the lender tests at rate plus 3 percentage points. Buyers in Craigieburn and Wollert shopping near the top of their range should ask their broker what a rise would do before they bid. The borrowing power calculator lets you test it.
What a rise would and would not change for buyers
A 0.25% move does not change grants, the First Home Guarantee, stamp duty or the price caps. It changes repayments and borrowing power at the margin. Vendors sometimes react to rate news more than buyers do, which can produce short windows of softer competition after a rise. That is an observation, not a strategy; buy when the property and the finance are right for you.
Frequently asked questions
Will my lender pass on a rate rise in full?
Usually, and quickly, for variable-rate loans. Lenders have historically passed on rises in full and more reliably than cuts. The effective date is typically two to three weeks after the decision. Fixed-rate loans are unaffected until the fixed term ends.
Should I fix before the meeting to beat a rise?
Fixed rates already reflect the market's expectation of a rise, so fixing now does not lock in a pre-rise price. Fix if you want certainty for your own budget reasons, not to outsmart the market. If you do fix, ask about a rate-lock so the quoted rate holds while the paperwork is processed.
What if the RBA cuts instead?
No major bank currently expects a cut in September. If it happened, variable borrowers would see lower repayments within weeks, and fixed borrowers would not benefit until their term ended. That asymmetry is one reason many borrowers keep at least part of their loan variable.
How do I know if I am paying too much?
Compare your rate against the comparison rate on current offers for a similar loan and LVR, using the loan comparison calculator. If you have not reviewed your loan in two years, there is a good chance a lower rate is available. A broker can check this across lenders in one conversation.
Talk to GNT Finance
We will not tell you what the Board will do on 29 September. We will tell you what your loan costs at each outcome and whether there is a better one available now. Book a free consultation or call Gorakh Timilsina on 0426 403 703 from our Mickleham office. There is no cost to you for our home-loan service in most cases.
Written by Gorakh Timilsina
Founder, CEO & Senior Mortgage Consultant at GNT Finance. Gorakh started as a broker assistant, spent years as a senior credit officer assessing loan applications, and now helps Melbourne families get the right loan approved. English, Nepali and Hindi spoken.